Rates
Yield And Policy Backdrop
Rates set the discount-rate backdrop for equities, duration, FX and gold. US 10Y 4.38%; US 2Y 4.1%; US 10Y real 2.16%; Germany 10Y 3.05%; ECB deposit 2.25%.
Oracle Macro Read
What changed in macro, what it means for broad markets, and which Oracle calls are being tested now.
Awaiting Official Result2026-06-25 08:30 ET
Current Macro Transmission
US GDP Q1 2026 third estimate is past its scheduled publication window and Oracle is waiting for the official actual. Growth momentum looks firmer.
Major markets are mixed today. Visible tape: SPY +0.9% today, ^STOXX50E +1.5% today, ^OMX +1.2% today.
No scheduled high-importance catalyst is inside the near window.
Market transmission
Growth releases matter because they separate soft-landing risk from slowdown risk. Confirmation markets: DX-Y.NYB, GC=F, SPY, TLT, ^OMX.
DX-Y.NYBGC=FSPYTLT^OMX^STOXX50E
Macro Flow Into Markets
Official releases and live trade, sanctions, energy and risk headlines mapped into broad indexes, duration, commodities and FX.
Indexes
Broad Market Response
US Equities +0.9% today; Eurozone Large Caps +1.5% today; Swedish Equities +1.2% today; Japan Equities +0.9% today
Trade / Supply
trade and supply pressure
Trade, sanctions and supply-chain headlines are clustering. The first market response usually shows through oil, gold, the dollar and broad equity risk. Confirmation markets: BZ=F, CL=F, DX-Y.NYB, GC=F, MCHI.
Commodities / Forecasts
Inflation And Risk Proxies
Gold +0.1% today; WTI Crude Oil -0.5% today 19 active calls are open across 5 market group(s).
Official Macro
US GDP Q1 2026 third estimate: Awaiting Official Result
Growth releases matter because they separate soft-landing risk from slowdown risk. Confirmation markets: DX-Y.NYB, GC=F, SPY, TLT, ^OMX.
Active Macro Movements
Economy News pressure: USEconomy News
Economy News pulse: US is active in the macro feed. The market link is strongest where the mapped assets confirm the move. Confirmation markets: SPY.
trade and supply pressureTrade Sanctions Supply
Trade, sanctions and supply-chain headlines are clustering. The first market response usually shows through oil, gold, the dollar and broad equity risk. Confirmation markets: BZ=F, CL=F, DX-Y.NYB, GC=F, MCHI.
Market Stress pressure: GlobalMarket Stress
Market Stress pulse: Global is active in the macro feed. The market link is strongest where the mapped assets confirm the move. Confirmation markets: GC=F, SPY.
Macro News
Official releases with actual values, pre-release forecasts, market transmission and mapped index/commodity exposure.
1 awaiting · 1 recent
Awaiting Official ResultUS2026-06-25 08:30 ET
US GDP Q1 2026 third estimate
Official actual
waiting
The scheduled time has passed and Oracle is still waiting for the official value.
Expectation before release
BEA GDP third estimate, industries, corporate profits, state GDP and state personal income for Q1 2026.
Expectation before release: BEA GDP third estimate, industries, corporate profits, state GDP and state personal income for Q1 2026
Oracle before release: stronger at 67% confidence. Growth momentum looks firmer.
Result read: pending until the official value is published. Growth releases matter because they separate soft-landing risk from slowdown risk. Confirmation markets: DX-Y.NYB, GC=F, SPY, TLT, ^OMX.
Markets: DX-Y.NYB, GC=F, SPY, TLT, ^OMX
ReleasedUS2026-06-25 08:30 ET
US PCE price index May 2026
Official actual
131.53Index
Official actual: 131.53Index inflation reading
Expectation before release
BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for May 2026.
Expectation before release: BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for May 2026
Oracle before release: hotter at 78% confidence. Inflation pressure looks more likely to rise or stay sticky.
Result read: The US PCE Price Index for May 2026 was reported at 132. A quantitative surprise cannot be determined from stored consensus. The PCE Price Index reading of 132 provides a baseline for May 2026 inflation; however, without a numeric consensus, the immediate directional pressure on yields and equities depends on how this aligns with broader disinflationary or inflationary trends. Watch: Core PCE components and personal spending data to assess the underlying strength of consumer demand and price persistence. Inflation releases matter because they change rate-cut odds and real-yield pressure. Confirmation markets: DX-Y.NYB, GC=F, SPY, TLT, ^OMX.
Markets: DX-Y.NYB, GC=F, SPY, TLT, ^OMX
Markets
Broad indexes, duration and commodities with today, one-week and one-month moves plus the active forecast attached to each market.
7 watched
Rates And Duration
Rates set the discount-rate backdrop for equities, duration, FX and gold. US 10Y 4.38%; US 2Y 4.1%; US 10Y real 2.16%; Germany 10Y 3.05%; ECB deposit 2.25%.
US Rates And Duration
US 2Y4.1%+0.03pp
US 10Y4.38%flat
US 30Y4.86%-0.01pp
US 10Y real2.16%-0.02pp
US 10Y-2Y0.3pp+0.02pp
European Policy Rates
Germany 10Y3.05%+0.05pp
Sweden 10Y2.74%-0.04pp
ECB deposit2.25%flat
Riksbank policy1.75%flat
Sweden short rate0.1%flat
Credit Stress
US high-yield OAS2.75%-0.05pp
US Investment-Grade OAS0.76%flat
European curve coverage currently includes Germany 10Y, but not Germany 1Y/5Y tenors; those need to be added before Oracle can show the full European curve.
Forecasts And Results
19 open calls are active across 5 market group(s). 7 of 32 completed calls hit directionally; the sample is still small and should be read as calibration context.
19 open calls · 32 scored results
Open calls
19
active calls awaiting their result windows
Scored results
32
completed forecast windows
Direction accuracy
22%
7 hits / 32 scored
Awaiting
12
calls not scored yet
US Equities
S&P 500 ETF · SPY
Oracle downopen1w horizon
Expected range -2.5% to 0.5% with 65% confidence.
The outlook for the SPY over the next week is bearish, driven by a confluence of macroeconomic headwinds and a spike in global risk indicators. The Oracle Map specifically flags 'Rates pressure' and 'Inflation pressure' as active macro headwinds, which are likely reinforced by the PCE price index release (131.527). This suggests a persistent…
as of 2026-06-25result due 2026-07-03
Japan Equities
Nikkei 225 · ^N225
Oracle downopen1m horizon
Expected range -8.0% to 3.0% with 65% confidence.
The Nikkei 225 is currently exhibiting signs of extreme technical overextension, trading 30.7% above its 200-day moving average with a 1-year return of 85%. While the 1-month momentum is strong (+12.8%), the 'Oracle Map Read' indicates significant macro headwinds, specifically 'Rates pressure' and 'Inflation pressure' clusters. These signals suggest that…
as of 2026-06-15result due 2026-07-15
US Long Duration
20Y+ Treasury ETF · TLT
Oracle downopen1m horizon
Expected range -7.0% to 4.0% with 65% confidence.
The outlook for TLT over the next 21 trading days is bearish, driven by a cluster of 'Rates Pressure' and 'Inflation Pressure' signals in the Oracle Map Read. These indicators suggest a macro environment where long-term yields remain biased to the upside. The asset is currently trading below its 200-day moving average (pxvsma200: -0.011), and while it has…
as of 2026-06-15result due 2026-07-15
Gold
COMEX gold · GC=F
Oracle upopen1w horizon
Expected range -0.5% to 3.5% with 65% confidence.
Gold (GC=F) is currently in a state of 'oversold stabilization.' The asset has faced a significant drawdown (-9.8% over 1 month, -4.5% over 1 week), pushing the RSI to 32.9, which is near deep oversold territory. Despite this price weakness, the 50-day moving average remains above the 200-day moving average, suggesting the long-term structural uptrend is…
as of 2026-06-25result due 2026-07-03
WTI Crude Oil
Front-month WTI · CL=F
Oracle upopen1w horizon
Expected range -1.5% to 4.5% with 65% confidence.
The outlook for WTI Crude over the next week is cautiously bullish, primarily driven by a significant technical oversold condition and escalating geopolitical risk premiums. The RSI-14 has reached 30.15, a level typically associated with a price floor or imminent reversal. While the asset has suffered a heavy drawdown (-19.5% over 1 month), the 1-day return…
as of 2026-06-25result due 2026-07-03
Realized Results
^STOXX50E 1w
Call was flat; result window scored.
-0.9%
hit
^OMX 1w
Call was up; result window scored.
-0.8%
miss
SPY 1w
Call was up; result window scored.
-1.8%
miss
CL=F 1w
Call was up; result window scored.
-4.8%
miss
GC=F 1w
Call was up; result window scored.
-4.5%
miss
^STOXX50E 1w
Call was flat; result window scored.
4.4%
miss
^OMX 1w
Call was flat; result window scored.
3.7%
miss
Awaiting Results
^STOXX50E 1w
Call was down; result window still open.
—
awaiting
^OMX 1w
Call was up; result window still open.
—
awaiting
SPY 1w
Call was down; result window still open.
—
awaiting
CL=F 1w
Call was up; result window still open.
—
awaiting
GC=F 1w
Call was up; result window still open.
—
awaiting